“In Egypt today, most people are concerned with getting bread to eat.
Only some of the educated understand how democracy works.
If You want to move people, You look for a point of sensitivity,
and — in Egypt — nothing moves people as much as religion…”.
(Naguib Mahfouz)
(Naguib Mahfouz)
“In Egypt, the Living were subordinate to the dead…”.
(Stephen Gardiner)
(Stephen Gardiner)
“Some dog i got, too. We call him “Egypt,” because in every room he leaves a pyramid…”.
(Rodney Dangerfield)
(Rodney Dangerfield)
Well, today is Philosophical / Political Covday (Monday), and there is so much to discuss. However, i am going to address only three topics today, although i will spend most of my time on one issue.
First, in my post two weeks ago (entitled “01-17-2011 3P Post #6: The Cost Of War” from January 17th, 2011), i mentioned Sun Tzu’s classic strategic instruction manual called “The Art Of War.” i have a friend named Brace Barber. Brace is one of the best people i know. Besides being a fabulous person, he is a West Point grad and a very strategic thinker. He has just written a new book entitled Sun Tzu's Pattern Of Power: The Art Of War Organized For Decision, and i wanted to let You all know that i will be buying it and reading it as soon as i am able — not just because Brace is my friend (in fact, not even really at all for that reason) — but because i believe Sun Tzu’s writing is a masterpiece that deserves to be on the best 10 books ever written list of classics and because it takes someone of Brace’s unique skill set to be able to unpack, explain, and employ Sun Tzu’s brilliance for everyday applications. i am very much looking forward to the experience, and i have no doubt that i will benefit greatly from it. Philosophy is only valuable to the extent that it reflects Truth and enables us to Live more beneficially for others as we glorify YHWH (Blessed be His Holy Name). i have no doubt that Brace’s insights will greatly aid me in that pursuit….
Secondly, this past Tuesday was the 2011 State of the Union (SotU) Address by President Obama, although it seems like that was several weeks ago with all that is happening in the world right now (more on that in a bit). The crux of what i want to say about the SotU is threefold. Here are my personal observations…
i Love SotUs. Outside of inaugural speeches, they are my favorite presidential speeches. Of course, this isn’t because they are such awesome speeches (since they are usually boring and quite often just plain awful from a speechwriting perspective), but it is because they date a president. They put him on record at a given point in the graph of his presidency as reflected by the 3D coordinates of his assessment of the cultural pulse of the nation, his vision for what he wants to accomplish, and his political capital & standing to influence the country’s direction. SotUs are like EKGs…they tell You how aLive the president is politically at that moment, and that’s why i like them so much. Plus, i like the pageantry and the spectacle of it all. It’s like SuperBowl Sunday or the Grammys for me, which — regrettably — all happen in late January & early February. i get a big bowl of popcorn or ice cream and dig in to my couch to enjoy a night of expectations, rhetoric, & punditry….
my first observation about the 2011 SotU is that Obama was in a difficult position with regard to the delivery of the speech given its proximity chronologically to his Tucson speech after the shootings. Any president does better in an atmosphere of banding together in response to a tragedy versus pulling apart in response to political differences, but — even given that — i thought the speech was pretty skillful. Obama managed to put the Repugnicans behind the eight ball and really lay down the gauntlet on his policy objectives. Of course, the Repugnicans can respond either poorly and continue to waste the momentum from their trouncing of the president in the recent elections or they can step up and lead in order to regain that momentum, but i would guess they'll do neither. They'll probably do what they normally do, which is not a whole lot of anything.
Now, i also thought Paul Ryan and Michelle Bachman did well, too, in terms of laying out their positions and appealing to their constituents & supporters. However, for me it was a good night, because all three speakers put out their plans in pretty straightforward terms: Obama wants more spending despite the fact that we’re broke, Ryan wants less spending, and Bachman wants no spending. How can You ask for more than that?
Now, i also thought Paul Ryan and Michelle Bachman did well, too, in terms of laying out their positions and appealing to their constituents & supporters. However, for me it was a good night, because all three speakers put out their plans in pretty straightforward terms: Obama wants more spending despite the fact that we’re broke, Ryan wants less spending, and Bachman wants no spending. How can You ask for more than that?
The second observation i will make is that Obama talked passionately about education, and i am glad about that. With the documovie that came out this year (“Waiting For Superman”), education is beginning to become a more vernacular issue and more germane to the 2012 campaign cycle. Education gets a lot of lip service as a topic in American politics, but it rarely matters in any meaningful way. i personally don’t know anyone who voted for or against either Obama or McCain based primarily on the issue of education.
However, education is beginning to sneak up on us as a more affluent political issue, and the reasons probably aren’t what You’d suspect. It isn’t because of people suddenly becoming passionate about the idea of public (or other types) of education or due to some civil rights issue or any of the other more sexy motivations of the past. No, this time it really comes down to a mix of competitiveness (the supposed theme of Obama’s SotU) in the global economy, fairness (to give kids an equal shot at succeeding), competency (Americans don’t like to feel like they are just absolute failures at anything, especially if they spend lots of money to fail — and, trust me, we are completely failing at education in this country by any metric), and the influence of unions on everyday American Life in a vein that we don’t usually discuss. During a week that saw the largest FBI set of arrests on organized crime in American history, the discussion of teacher’s unions seems almost ironic to me, but it also fits with the financial crisis (which i shall mention briefly momentarily) and all the state-payroll employees across the country….
The final SotU issue i will mention is that — in the same week as Japan saw its credit rating dropped, mind You (something that should serve as yet another reminder to us that we need immediate action in our country or we, too, are not immune to such consequences) and in the context of the global financial (World Economic Forum) meetings in Davos, Switzerland — the president showed his True colors: red & yellow, as in a tendency toward redistributive, collectivist ideals (red) and cowardice (yellow). He could have advocated for strong policies that would benefit poor Americans and ask more of rich Americans…he could have put himself in the political position which would have been the envy of every president before him and probably every one to come after him…he could have showed incredible leadership and exhibited great political courage…he could have set up his legacy to be one of the True greats and to fundamentally change the way the Demoncrats are perceived as a party and as presidents…and he decided to do none of that. Instead, he advocated increased spending (coded as “investment,” which it is), asked for almost no sacrifice, and tried to appear optimistic to invoke Reagan’s ghost.
The problem is this (and all of this, by the way, is my personal analysis — not any regurgitated analysis borrowed from any pundit…i don’t do that, just so You know): people don’t usually want to subject themselves to a general or a sergeant when they’re outside the military environment, but they do usually want a singular voice to obey in the middle of war. Obama punted, and that doesn’t really cut it when You’re the quarterback. It’s OK to punt — if You’re a punter. If You’re the quarterback and You punt, people begin to see You more in terms of Your posture as weak or visionless or scared or whatever instead of seeing You in terms of the role You occupy (such as quarterback). It was sad to watch someone who i know Loves America do so poorly in regard to adequately fulfilling the role he occupies.
The bottom line is this: America is in debt, and that debt grows increasingly unmanageable every day. If You think that what happened in Greece or Portugal can’t happen here…or that Ireland was somehow different with their peculiarities (in terms of their banking sector issues)…or that those are just extremes and we’re in more of a Britain kind of situation…or that we are not subject to the same economic principles as Japan…or that China is too close to us to allow us to fall…or that Turkey and other nations are too dependent upon us and that makes us “too big to fail” in a global sense…if You think any of that, then You’re just either kidding Yourself, plain stupid, flat-out ignorant, or downright incompetent. Sorry, just the facts, ma’am. Ask Chris Christie or Andrew Cuomo or John Kasich or Jerry Brown what they think about running budget deficits, and You'll know what You need to know very quickly: it is ruinous....
Obama could have used the SotU to show himself to be an insightful leader; instead, he used it to reveal himself as a pathetic follower. O, well — high hopes aside, there’s always 2012, i guess….
So, now to the main event: Egypt.
If You haven’t been paying attention, You should. Egypt, along with Persia (modern-day Iran), China, India, and the Jewish people are the five great remaining civilizations that all date back over 5,000 years (depending on how You view it). As a person descended from Abraham, i can’t say i really feel sorry for the Egyptians whenever they go through any kind of mess, but i do realize the stakes involved. With Egypt, the stakes are always high.
This matters to You greatly, unless $20 a gallon for gas isn’t important to You. It matters for other reasons, too. The face of the world is changing, and maybe in ways that don’t seem intuitive or predictable at first. If You understand that the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union (along with the subsequent factual proof that Communism and socialism are bankrupt (literally) and untenable philosophies), that the religious theocracy movement in Iran in the late 1970s (and the subsequent boon that was to the burgeoning Islamic terrorist movement that had begun in the prisons of the aforementioned Egypt and took center stage with the hijacking of airplanes and the bombings that started most ostensibly with the Beirut Marines fiasco in 1983), or that the development of what i call “supernational” economic interests that began, at least in large part in my mind, with the establishment and despicable actions of OPEC (and the subsequent emergence of everything from the drug cartels in South America to the corporate bullies such as Microsoft and its founders that have become now the individual tyrants of the world) were major world moments, then You ought to understand that Egypt is a big deal — to You….
Why? Well, mainly because no country exerts as much influence over the Arab world as Egypt (as just one reason among many, though). See, the Iranians are ancient Persia, and they aren’t really the main deal. Arab is a term, strictly speaking, that means someone from a Semitic background (i.e., a descendant of Abraham via either Ishmael or Isaac, although descendants of Isaac are more normally called "Jews" by lineage rather than "Arabs" by geography) that hailed from the ancient geographical area known as “Arabia” (as in Saudi Arabia today in the modern world). Persians aren’t really Arabs, and there is much of the Sunni/Shiite wrapped up in all of those kinds of distinctions. Suffice it to say that Egypt has much more influence in places like Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and elsewhere than the Iranians could ever hope to have….
Knowing that, the Carter-era Mideast Peace Accords that established peace between Egypt and Israel are a fundamental building block to any future “peace” agreements in the Middle East. Throw in the fact that Egypt has been a key U.S. ally in the war against Al Qaeda and Islamic terrorists, and the plight of Egypt becomes even more important. But those are just the beginning. There are multiple issues in play: the Suez Canal, the impact on the African continent from the Sudan to Somalia to Libya or surrounding regions (like Yemen), the impact on a nuclear arms proliferation the likes of which have only been seen in nightmares, etc., etc.
It is clear that Egypt is going through birth pains right now and will soon birth something. What Lives out of her disgusting belly in the future days will affect us all….
The Chinese have a term called “the mandate of heaven,” and it refers to the soft legitimacy or the consent of the governed that is so essential to every functional and embraced government. It’s not quite “divine right,” but it does recognize and acknowledge the role of divinity in any government’s authentic rights to rule. Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s “president” and dictator, has now lost that legitimacy completely (as opposed to mostly which happened a long time ago). His reign will soon end in all likelihood or survive out of an even worse reality. It is yet another example for America to examine what i call its “strange bedfellows” approach to U.S. foreign policy.
The U.S. leaders ought to give serious consideration (in the long-term analysis) to whether or not they want to take us down the continued road of the “stability vs. democracy” debate. Democracy is not a good or bad thing — it is neutral and can be used for either bad purposes or evil purposes. It’s kind of like a gun, it can either kill in self-defense or kill in murder. While the U.S. has a history of propping up people like Saddam Hussein and then later wishing they hadn’t, someone should be thinking about how to not end up on the side of people like Mubarak or Hussein or Hamid Karzai or any of the many others that have turned out to be so disastrous to us.
i suppose the most frightening thing to most Americans — other than how little control and minor influence we actually have on all this, since we're a nation of control freaks when it comes to the behavior of others (just ask any liberal whether or not You should be allowed to eat at McDonald's and You'll know exactly what i mean) — is what form of government will emerge in Egypt: will it be Islamist theocracy like that of Iran, a more secular form of Islamicism like that of Turkey, or a more terrorist-oriented form like that of Hamas? These are the recent choices from history, but i think many people are worried that it will be an even more strident form unlike anything we have seen so far.
No matter what You think will emerge, Americans need to be careful about wanting to spread democracy. Democracy reflects — more than any other form of government — the nature of the people it governs, because they elect people to do their bidding and represent their views both domestically and also to the rest of the world. Democracy is indeed a "government of, by, & for the people," but it reflects both the best & worst of them. Hamas got elected; they didn't seize power. So, now, we have to deal with an elected enemy. That is a reality in Iraq, too, albeit much less so. Democracy is not the answer, and it never has been. The answer is a much more difficult discussion of how to export our values — not the form of government by which we choose to employ those values....
The most interesting debates broached by Egypt to me are things like the legitimacy of “self-rule,” the U.S. penchant to mock our own “isolationists” like Ron Paul or Pat Buchanan in the face of their being proven right over many years, the problems of modern-world nation-building, preemptive strikes, & global interdependence, cultural intelligence (or the lack of it, especially by Americans), the nature and proper valuing of order vs. chaos in government, the validity of a goal of exporting democracy as a form of government instead of a goal of modeling and then supporting the export of values that promote healthy human interactions between citizens & government, and a host of other issues. i think that i have written enough for today, but i’m sure we will get into some of these issues in the coming days. (Maybe some of You could suggest areas You would like me to address)….
No matter what You think will emerge, Americans need to be careful about wanting to spread democracy. Democracy reflects — more than any other form of government — the nature of the people it governs, because they elect people to do their bidding and represent their views both domestically and also to the rest of the world. Democracy is indeed a "government of, by, & for the people," but it reflects both the best & worst of them. Hamas got elected; they didn't seize power. So, now, we have to deal with an elected enemy. That is a reality in Iraq, too, albeit much less so. Democracy is not the answer, and it never has been. The answer is a much more difficult discussion of how to export our values — not the form of government by which we choose to employ those values....
The most interesting debates broached by Egypt to me are things like the legitimacy of “self-rule,” the U.S. penchant to mock our own “isolationists” like Ron Paul or Pat Buchanan in the face of their being proven right over many years, the problems of modern-world nation-building, preemptive strikes, & global interdependence, cultural intelligence (or the lack of it, especially by Americans), the nature and proper valuing of order vs. chaos in government, the validity of a goal of exporting democracy as a form of government instead of a goal of modeling and then supporting the export of values that promote healthy human interactions between citizens & government, and a host of other issues. i think that i have written enough for today, but i’m sure we will get into some of these issues in the coming days. (Maybe some of You could suggest areas You would like me to address)….
Here’s hoping that, by next Covday, the world isn’t a much, much worse place….